Cell phone sales expected to rise 23%

CCID Consulting said mobile phone sales in China are forecast to reach 150 million units in 2007, up 23.1% year-on-year.

However, the sales volume was expected to drop 0.3% to RMB166.1 billion (US$22.66 billion) because more low-end mobile phones were sold during the period.

The average price of a mobile in China dropped from RMB1,408 in 2006 to RMB1,142 this year. In addition, more than 20% of mobiles sold were less than RMB500.

Li Xuefang, a CCID consultant, cited increased demand for tailored phones by mobile operators and rising low-end mobile users in rural areas as the main reasons for the price drop.

She added that promotions by domestic manufacturers of mid- and low-end mobiles also brought down the general selling price.

In the third quarter of 2007, Chinese brand mobiles accounted for 33.4% market share, up from 31.1% in the second quarter.

CCID also predicted mobile sales, driven by rising low-end mobile users and the forthcoming launch of the third generation mobile networks, would exceed 200 million units in 2009.

But that is pure guesswork. The key is the date that 3G becomes widely available. At which point the market will change dramatically. In Japan the mobile is already being seen as a replacement for the computer. In China that will be a major trend so anyone predicting figures has to first know when 3G will be widely available. A good guess would be April next year. But that is only a guess.