Monday, January 28, 2008

China 2007 apparent oil demand growth 3.5 pct

China's apparent oil demand grew 3.5 percent in 2007 from a year earlier to 6.93 million barrels per day (bpd), Reuters calculations from official data showed.

In December alone, implied demand -- net imports plus refinery output, but excluding inventory changes which are not reported -- surged 6.4 percent to 7.20 million bpd, the figures showed.

(For a history of China oil demand growth, click: https://customers.reuters.com/community/commodities/graphics/China_Oil_Demand_Growth.htm)

MLN BPD PCT CHANGE*

Dec Nov Dec Nov

Crude imports 3.03 3.31 11.3 0.5

Crude supplied^ 6.56 6.97 5.1 1.3

Refinery crude runs 6.84 6.73 6.5 3.8

Net product imports 0.35 0.23 3.7 -43.6

Implied demand# 7.20 6.96 6.4 1.0

for diesel 2.90 2.67 16.6 6.5

for gasoline 1.43 1.37 11.3 9.0

for fuel oil 0.57 0.62 -5.7 -11.4

for LPG 0.74 0.73 -10.2 -10.3

for kerosene 0.22 0.28 17.3 25.0

Jan-Dec Jan-Dec

Crude imports 3.26 12.3

Crude supplied^ 6.92 6.3

Refinery crude runs 6.54 6.4

Net product imports 0.40 -28.3

Implied demand# 6.93 3.5

for diesel 2.55 7.1

for gasoline 1.29 5.8

for fuel oil 0.77 -6.8

for LPG 0.73 -1.2

for kerosene 0.27 6.0

* Percent change from a year earlier.

^ Crude supplied is the sum of net crude oil imports plus domestic production, measuring the volume of crude likely to have been delivered to refineries. Some analysts use this figure as a gauge of China's oil demand, although it is distorted by volatility in refiners' crude oil inventories, which are not reported.

# Reuters calculates China's oil demand by adding the total amount of crude refined during the relevant period, as reported by the national statistics bureau, to net imports of six major oil products, as reported by the customs department.

This strips out any changes in refinery crude stockpiles, but does not include changes in oil product inventories of refiners, wholesalers, retailers etc, which are not reported in China.

It also does not take into account the 1-2 percent rise in overall product volume created by the refining process. Nor does it include the small amount of crude that is directly burnt as fuel in some factories and power stations or that used by small, unreported "teapot" refineries.

Demand by product is calculated by the refinery output for each product plus net imports. Naphtha is not included in the table because refinery output of this product is not published by the National Statistics Bureau.

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