Taiwan, Tibet and Beijing in 2008: Analysis

2008 is set to be a landmark year for China. The well-anticipated 2008 Beijing Olympics is the great arena for China to showcase its economic achievements in the past three decades. However, it is also possible for China to be humiliated.

The recent riots in Tibet and violence in neighboring provinces are certainly perfectly timed. It is the most serious riots in Tibet since March 1989 (Hu Jintao, China’s president made his name by being decisive and determined to crack down on the 1989 Tibet riots during his term as the Communist Party's head of the autonomous region). In early March, the Chinese media reported that crew thwarted an attempt of one ethnic separatist from Xinjiang to crash the plane flying to Beijing.

Furthermore, on March 18, Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan's opposition party candidate for this coming Saturday presidential election, called Wen Jiabao, China’s Prime Minister "Overbearing, unreasonable, arrogant and stupid" after Wen appealed to Taiwanese voters to vote down two referendums on membership of the United Nations. The two referendums are set along with the coming presidential election on Saturday.

In addition, Ma said if he wins the presidential election, he will not rule out the option of boycotting Beijing Olympics "If the Chinese authorities continue to suppress the Tibetan people and the situation in Tibet worsens." It is rare for Ma, who always looks gentle in public, to lash out such a harsh verbal attack on Wen. Ma is very likely to win the presidential election.

Among all the three potential threats, in the past, only Taiwan stood out as a real threat to China. To some extent, China has to thank one person-Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan’s incumbent president, who had made things much easier for Beijing. The deeds of Chen in his two terms have successfully shaken the foundations of the pro-independent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a party used to be viewed as upright and occupied the moral high ground.

More importantly, the economic power between the Straits has been reversed. In 1996, Guangdong, the biggest economy in mainland was only 27% of the size of Taiwan measured by GDP. In 2007, however, Guangdong had surpassed Taiwan. At the same time, the economy of Taiwan has been highly connected with mainland, more and more people realized that cooperation, rather than confrontation is the way of future.

Ma's harsh words might be in part rationalized as election campaign language with the intention to lure middle or former pro-DPP voters as his supporters know well that Ma wants to maintain the status quo, which is also in the interests of Beijing.

For the problems of Tibet and Xinjiang, from the political point of view, they are much simpler than Taiwan as they are under the sovereignty of Beijing and there is no single country that recognizes their independence. However, in part due to China's unrefined public relationship skills on the international stage, it is easier for Tibet, and to a less extent Xinjiang, to create a backlash against China. Claims such as “China terrorizes Tibet” may be far from the truth. From episodic online report leakages, it is revealed that it is ordinary Chinese civilians who were killed by riots.

The 9/11 has shown us cultural and ethnic problems could be far more threatening to ordinary citizens than direct political conflicts. Moscow was attacked, so was New York and London and there is no reason why any other metropolis can stay immune from similar attacks, including Beijing.

In the past two decades, China has been by and large stable socially and economically, and 2008 could be the toughest year since 1989. Probably it is about the time for ordinary Chinese to embrace a different world. As the old Chinese saying goes, "People earn their name by facing adversity. "