Outlook for metal not rosy

China, the world's largest consumer of aluminum, may next year post the slowest consumption gain for the metal since 1997, an industry insider said yesterday.

Demand may rise between 2 percent and 3 percent, forcing Chinese smelters to idle at least 4 million tons of production capacity, Wang Feihong, an analyst at Beijing Antaike Information Development Co, said in Beijing.

Industrial metal prices have tumbled as the global economic slowdown and the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression crimped demand from manufacturers and builders. Global aluminum prices may tumble 20 percent next year, Wang told Bloomberg News.

"We notice that the economic situation is very similar to the Asian financial crisis in 1997 when aluminum demand grew at less than 1 percent," Wang said. "We expect China's aluminum output to stay flat in 2009. Slowing demand in China will also force other aluminum firms to cut output."